by Paul Noel
Pure Energy Systems News
Copyright © 2005
Thunder Horse rig damaged during hurricane
Source: Reuters; July 12, 2005
Rig beaches on Dauphin Island from Hurricane
GULF STATES, USA --
The situation in the immediate damage areas on the
US Gulf coast is a much happier story than a week ago. For the most part it is
the unsung story of the civilians pushing into their local stores and buying
supplies and then linking up with parties headed into the damage areas. This isn’t
a story of Federal, State or Local government success. These entities have in
many areas been completely useless. In other areas they have impeded the
citizens from the rescue efforts.
A brother of mine works for the US Army Corps of Engineers and has been deployed
finally – he had been delayed a week – to the area to help mange repair
contracts in the area near New Orleans. On his way, he stopped at the
Seventh-Day Adventist Church, Bass Memorial Academy. There is good news at this
location. Though heavily damaged, the facility has had some substantial repairs
completed and it now is a center for about 350 volunteers helping the community
at this location some distance south of Jackson, Ms. That community is heavily
damaged. There is heavy damage to the forests of Southern Mississippi with long
stretches of Highway where chain saws and bulldozers were required to make them
passable. This forest damage may reach above a hundred billion dollars.
The energy situation eased for a few days this past week allowing some trucking
to pass and our supplies remained at least adequate. Many gas stations were
closed for long periods and the trucking situation is precarious. It appears
that some substantial damage had occurred in New Orleans to 4 lines of the CSX
railroad there and much rail traffic is at best being slowed seriously. By
Saturday evening 9/10/2005, the situation on energy supplies has begun to return
to critical levels.
The damaged areas in Alabama have reached a stable level of recovery on land.
The big Yellowhammer plant is okay, and the refineries in Mobile are functional
and operating. The property damage situation is now stable and in recovery mode.
Rebuilding is proceeding in many areas. The only exception in Alabama is Dauphin
Island and the Mississippi Sound area. It is a mess, and the highway bridge to
it was destroyed. A new channel about 1000 feet wide and quite deep bisects the
Island just west of the State Park Beach. Most of the structures past the large
dune on the island to the west are gone.
A storm surge of 28 to 30 feet passed up the Bayou La Batre (Yes it is real and
you saw it in the movie “Forrest Gump.”) and did some horrid damage to the
small community there. A fairly heroic effort by the people of Atmore, Al has
begun the repairs there. Hurricane Ivan had destroyed Atmore and the people of
Bayou La Batre helped rebuild them a little more than a year ago. The geography
in the Mobile area minimized the damages.
I have less information on Mississippi’s damage and
recovery except that the damage for several miles inland from the coast was just
about total. They have no geographic protection. The
culture of the people in the area makes them very hardy and they tend to help
each other a lot. Great volumes of people and supplies have
been driven into the area from Alabama. The role of Alabama
in this situation is more a rescue party than one of victim.
Mississippi has essentially lost its barrier islands.
In addition the Chandelier Islands of Louisiana are completely gone.
All that remains of the Chandelier Islands is a few shoals. In
most locations it is now deep water. These may be observed on
NOAA photos at their website.
In addition much of the State of Louisiana, East, and South of New
Orleans has sunk. This may also be observed at the NOAA site.
The dikes along the Mississippi river remain intact but most of the land
adjacent almost into the city of New Orleans is gone. This
extends on a line almost to Morgan City. There is some
question if this is an extended “storm surge” (Note no such thing has been
observed before) or if the area is permanently gone. The area
involved is about 2000 square miles. The entire area of the
state south of Baton Rouge is now in danger of sinking into the sea forever.
This includes some areas into the State of Mississippi and the ENTIRE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.
There is some question if the 30-foot storm surge didn’t shift the land and
cause the area to sink several feet. This if so would be mass
effects of the water on a porous geologic structure. (The Oil
industry caused the pores.)
As I noted in the last posting, such efforts are highly
dependent on energy supplies and these are now beginning to run thin again.
Given adequate supplies, the people here will handle the situation. Rebuilding
is extremely energy consuming.
The situation in regards to oil and natural gas is profoundly serious. I have
exerted considerable effort to get the best data available on the situation. It
reads like this:
There are 21 oil refineries – which produce a combined total of 47% of US
Distillates – that are not functioning. Of these 11 are being relit or have
relit in the past 2 days. This process anticipates significant production in
about 2 weeks. The relights begin a process of about 30 days to bring the plants
into full production. It is precarious, dangerous work under normal
circumstances. Let us wish the workers well. Let us hope they have no accidents.
Such could blow up a refinery.
Six more of the refineries are expected to begin relight in the next 30 days.
The total production of all of these relighting refineries would leave the USA
with a deficit in supply of at least 25% of the total supply. With a few tricks
the President and the EPA have tricked the supply up to get 10% more at the
expense of our air. This involves Volatility Standards. This brings us up to 85%
of our previous gasoline supply. Sadly the other 4 refineries are in various
states of severe damage. None of these 4 is likely to produce anywhere near full
capacity this year. One will require substantial rebuilding. It was the largest
Off shore the situation actually might appear to be a bit better. Some 60% of
off-shore oil production is actually working. The reports officially are that
something like 150 rigs are severely damaged though at least 500 have yet to be
evaluated as of this time. 36 rigs are sunk and several are floating free,
having broken moorings. etc.. Remember here that individual numbers mean
nothing. Mars (Shell) is heavily damaged and will not be producing for the rest
of this year. This was Shell’s flagship and biggest rig. A rig may or may not
be significant. Mars has internal flooding and has had severe damage to
superstructures and crew quarters.
The rigs are probably the best of the news. Financial sources say that the
33,000 miles of under sea pipelines may be in real trouble. Judging by the
islands I suspect this to be a serious problem. The data is inexact here.
The deep-water terminal is in disrepair but it is being recovered. It is
expected to have repairs and functionality restored to its pipelines in a week
or so. Access to strategic oil reserves requires this port for EU supplies to
Some 50% of the US Natural Gas supply is shut down due to pipeline damage and
rig damage. This is the thing I was talking about in a previous
posting to the PESN site when I referred to a Global Famine being a distinct
possibility. It now is approaching certainty. Let us hope for the best.
The translation for anyone figuring out the details here is that the USA is
going to have about a 15% or so deficit in its distillates energy supply for a
year or two. This is about 2 times the 1973 Embargo damage. It is most serious.
In the southeastern US we are “running on fumes” so to speak. We have to run
on the inventories that were pre-storm production for some extended time. We
were suffering some shortages prior to the storm.
More serious is the Natural Gas supply. Americans can adapt on Gasoline. Not so
for Natural Gas. Natural Gas is a commodity used to directly power a lot of
industry and is used extensively for Peak Loading of the Electrical Power Grid.
About ½ of it is used in the manufacture of chemicals especially for making
NITRATE FERTILIZER. The USA is a massive exporter of nitrate fertilizer to the
rest of the world. We also use massive quantities of it. The exact tonnage of
this is difficult to estimate but this loss of supply is enough to risk the loss
of a very significant part of the world fertilizer supply. This is going to
affect the supply of food in the world for about 2 years. This will not be a
minor loss. This is why I referred to a “World Wide Famine”
in the earlier PESN posting. It is now a definite
If the USA diverts Natural Gas to preserve the fertilizer
supply, the US Power Grid will lose about 30% of its gross supply of electricity
and most of its peak loading capacity. This threatens massive
loss of jobs and productivity. Many industries cannot operate
without the natural gas. If it does not divert this millions
may starve. It is a horrible choice.
This situation leaves the USA crippled for some time to
come. Even if the refineries are repaired, they may not be
able to get enough crude oil for some time. Even with the
strategic petroleum reserves of the EU and the USA opened, there is a serious
question of the ability of the USA to return to adequate supplies for some time.
The Fertilizer supply issues are a serious problem because of the spring
demand in the northern hemisphere is coming all too soon for this to be
recovered. This promises a problem with at least the price of
food. The economic recovery and rebuilding will be
hampered for some time due to the energy supply problems. This
is most serious.
Publix has posted in their stores warnings about possible
supply disruptions during this energy emergency and that they are taking
measures to minimize energy use. Those who know what is going
on are well aware that this situation is serious. These posts
are all over their stores.
The causes of the problem:
There are temporary solutions and long-term solutions.
To understand these solutions requires understanding that this problem
was not created by a Hurricane. The problem was merely
triggered by a Hurricane. The problem is about 1 part
Homicide (the storm) and about 9 parts Suicide. (man made) The primary causes of
the problem arise behind what focused and concentrated the facilities in this
area. While the supply is largely in the area, the reason
these facilities were placed so is almost entirely political.
If one looks merely at supply, the Atlantic East Coast
states all have offshore oil in quantity but prohibit the drilling for various
reasons. Florida, for example, probably has more oil than just about any other
state. They forbid oil for aesthetic reasons. They haven’t considered
subsidence. If the oil were drilled there the supply
disruptions by even 4 storms as happened last year would have been minimal.
Such a concentration as exists now would not have happened had President
Bush allowed drilling in Florida off shore locations. There
are massive oil deposits in US Federal Lands are not allowed to be drilled for
None of the domestic supply issues confront the need to
supply 300,000,000 immigrants with their energy supply over the next 35 years of
growth that is forecast by the wide open immigration policies of the USA.
The supply of energy for the USA must double in the next 35 years.
No prospects or proposals have been made at a Government level to even
consider this situation.
The US Income Tax left the USA mesmerized by “Just in
Time” inventories for many years. This caused the end of
local stores of fuel. It consolidated the refineries. It ended the supply store
with a stock of parts and left us living by an Air Bridge to Asia for our
resupply. Asia has come to believe in the instant continuous
market in the USA. This term “Just in Time” should in
emergency be viewed as “Just Inadequate Treatment.” This
applies to epidemic, fire, flood and terrorism. The USA used
to keep massive stocks of supplies for the cold war -- and does not have them
now. This left the US Military fetching supplies from all
over the world just to handle a Hurricane. The Income Tax
must be repealed and replaced with the “Fair Tax” (www.fairtax.org)
in order to return to having adequate supplies for emergencies.
In the long term a serious look needs to be made to
removing oil from any growth picture and replacing it. The
issues of land destruction by subsidence make it clear that we are going to
sacrifice large areas of the USA to this industry if it continues. As
this becomes known to be a problem world wide, the acceptance of this industry
will be in trouble. I suppose a Bible quotation of Rev 11:18
is in order:
“And the nations were angry, and thy wrath is come, and
the time of the dead, that they should be judged, and that thou shouldest give
reward unto thy servants the prophets, and to the saints, and them that fear
thy name, small and great; and shouldest destroy them which destroy the earth.”
The format of any solution must be made in the area of
dispersal of the energy generation closer to the site of its use. This is for
National Security reasons, as well as the practicality of not wasting large
amounts of energy moving it around.
As soon as recovery moves into a more stable situation in a matter of days, the
President of the USA and the US Congress should fund at levels equal to or
higher than the recovery cost from this storm the research and development of
alternative energy solutions. These solutions are far behind their need in being
implemented. A forward-looking person would see that the USA was already in a
critical energy crunch that has been made worse by a storm. This situation
demands emergency level responses. It is out of hand, behind schedule and
getting worse. The alternative energy solutions should approach the solution of
problems with storage, transportation and the generation of energy.
On energy generation, Solar, Wind and Tidal power are modest solutions that need
to be applied as soon as they can be applied. Honest assessments here note that
these are only a small percentage of the solution. They are solutions
nonetheless and should be applied. The problem with solar, wind and tidal is
that they occur outside the schedules of the user. They require storage
technology. Curiously Nuclear Power has exactly the same problem. None of these
sources of energy occur under the relative control of the user. This is why oil,
natural gas and coal have been so attractive. The issue was never efficiency. It
was portability and on demand use. Do not forget that we must double the energy
supply in just 35 years!
Some potential sources such as magnetic
motors, and others should at least get decent research money. There are
several technologies in play here. There are thermal devices and more that
deserve research. The problem is not a lack of energy. It is timing and location
How the energy affects the world and environment has to be considered. This has
to be a rational consideration. To date the development of these decisions has
been under the direction of people who wished to enslave mankind for their
profit. We can clearly see that this solution methodology has left us in great
danger, not only of our economy, but also of our lives and even of the existence
of our very land and country. The story of Hurricane Katrina has to be that of
bringing clearly to the front this decision and its consequences.
The End of New Orleans:
The wetlands and coastal marshes are gone. The city now has no defense against
even a more modest hurricane. The land on which it sits is sliding into the deep
ocean trench. It is compressing lower every day. The location is now essentially
30 miles out in the ocean at this time. The city is already sunk below sea
The Mississippi river is departing west to Morgan City and the Atchafalaya.
The river began its departure in earnest something close to 40 years ago. The
“Old River Control Structure” was built to control this and has already
begun to fail. The city and its environment cannot sustain it for long.
Rebuilding the city of New Orleans is INSANE. Curiously large numbers of the
people of New Orleans are grateful for the opportunity to leave and never come
Imagine if you will an Island city 60 miles off the coast of the USA subject to
even worse conditions than today. Think of it sinking into the sea even further.
See it having to haul its water 100 miles from the Atchafalaya, and all
of its ports and facilities cut off from the river. This is the current
situation plus a few years. New Orleans is doomed. Building higher dikes and
stronger floodwalls will only assure a more complete destruction when it comes
again. It is a complete fool's errand to rebuild the city. The people there
should be relocated. The location should be considered uninsurable. The location
is completely impractical.
I don't really see the view here as contrary. It is more complementary
than it might appear. It says that the current disastrous situation was
essentially contrived by people who use such
events. These people have the reserves but like the situation to be
desperate in order to coerce people. The desperation is real NOW. But the
situation was constructed to be so. I think he is right. I
understand this and have known about what he is talking about for a long time.
This is in no small part what I was referring to in the issue of taxation
etc. This doesn't mean that the current mess is different. It just
means that these men in charge are as black in their intentions
as the crude oil they use